# Turn 16 · alice

Turns are zero-based. Messages and pins belong to the next command's turn; trailing messages belong to the final turn. A partner's overflow discard stays in the interrupted turn. Each event and model call below has its own anchor (`#e<seq>`, `#d-<id>`).

[Previous turn](/games/game-14/turns/15.md) · [All turns](/games/game-14/turns/index.md) · [Interactive board](/games/game-14/replay.html#event-131) · [Game](/games/game-14/summary.md)

Board before the first command: state `130` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl). After the last command: state `140` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl). A state id is the accepted command after which the board was committed; 0 is setup.

## Accepted events

### #131 · alice · cmd {#e131}

```json
{
  "tag": "pass"
}
```

Board before: state `130` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `131` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

### #132 · alice · msg {#e132}

> EPIDEMIC #3 HIT (rate now 3) and the reshuffle is aimed straight at us: the infection top six reads Istanbul(3)→Mumbai(3)→Karachi(3) next — my end-of-turn phase would draw all three black chain-bombs at once (~4-6 outbreaks, black supply 8 dies = instant loss), and the pinned plan's phase B (your T5 infect) draws the leftovers, so the old plan loses either way. But you drew BAGHDAD(black) — new line, YOU cure, one whole phase earlier: (1) I hand you Istanbul right now, here, so you hold 3 blacks ( Istanbul/Cairo/Baghdad) — at the cap shed a yellow fuel, keep AIRLIFT + every black. (2) I play my banked FORECAST free, burying Istanbul/Mumbai/Karachi and feeding my phase Toronto→Chicago→Taipei: two CHEAP outbreaks only (Chicago blue splash, Taipei red splash — no chains, zero black cubes), taking us 2/8→4/8. (3) I treat Istanbul 3→2 as insurance and park in ALGIERS holding the Algiers card. (4) YOUR T5, exactly: drive Istanbul→Algiers, shareTake Algiers from me, discoverCure BLACK with Istanbul+Cairo+Baghdad+Algiers — the game ends BEFORE your infect phase; the buried bombs never fire. Also matured this turn: Chicago 3 blue (epidemic city) and Tokyo 3 red. Residual risk: ~23% I draw epidemic #4 tonight, which reshuffles and scrambles my ordering — then my phase gets messy but your T5 cure still ends it if we survive, and the Istanbul treat + untouchable black supply are the margin. Airlift stays your emergency brake.

**Queued for bob:** delivered ahead of bob's next prompt with model call [bob:i64](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i64), not when it was sent.

[Model call alice-i70](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i70) — exact submission ref

### #133 · alice · plan {#e133}

> ENDGAME v3 — BOB CURES BLACK ON HIS T5 (supersedes v2; v2 loses to epidemic #3's reshuffle: infection top six = Istanbul(3)/Mumbai(3)/Karachi(3) chain-bombs, black supply 8). ALICE T4 (3 actions): shareGive Istanbul to bob in Istanbul → treat Istanbul black 3→2 (epidemic insurance) → drive Algiers, park there holding Algiers card; play banked FORECAST free, phase A order Toronto→Chicago→Taipei (2 cheap OBs: blue splash + red splash, no chains, no black cubes; Istanbul/Mumbai/Karachi buried 4-6). BOB T5 SCRIPT — do not deviate: drive Istanbul→Algiers → shareTake Algiers from alice → discoverCure BLACK (Istanbul+Cairo+Baghdad+Algiers) = WIN, game ends before bob's infect phase. Bob sheds only yellow/red fuel at hand caps (Mexico City/Johannesburg/Beijing), NEVER a black or AIRLIFT. RISK: ~23% alice draws epidemic #4 at T4-end → reshuffle scrambles Forecast order, phase A (rate 4) draws repeats from a small discard incl. Tokyo(3 red) — survive to bob's cure anyway; if the cure slips, AIRLIFT is the brake and the Algiers meet stands. Win = 4th cure; no cleanup needed after.

[Model call alice-i70](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i70) — exact submission ref

### #134 · alice · cmd {#e134}

```json
{
  "tag": "shareGive",
  "to": "bob",
  "card": "Istanbul"
}
```

Board before: state `131` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `134` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i70](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i70) — exact submission ref

### #135 · bob · cmd {#e135}

```json
{
  "tag": "discard",
  "card": {
    "kind": "city",
    "city": "Mexico City"
  }
}
```

Board before: state `134` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `135` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call bob-i64](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i64) — exact submission ref

### #136 · bob · msg {#e136}

> Discarded Mexico City (yellow fuel) — back to 7, holding Istanbul/Cairo/Baghdad + airlift. Your Istanbul handoff received, T5 script locked: drive Istanbul→Algiers, shareTake your Algiers card, discoverCure black with Istanbul+Cairo+Baghdad+Algiers — game ends before my infect phase. Also noting the two new 3s since I last wrote: Chicago 3 blue (epidemic city) and Tokyo 3 red — your Forecast feed of Toronto→Chicago→Taipei takes the Chicago splash, and post-cure both are one-treat full clears if we ever want them. If your T4-end draw pulls epidemic #4 and scrambles the order, my cure still fires first thing on T5 as long as we survive your infect phase — Airlift stays in my hand as the brake.

[Model call bob-i64](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i64) — exact submission ref

### #137 · alice · cmd {#e137}

```json
{
  "tag": "treatDisease",
  "color": "black"
}
```

Board before: state `135` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `137` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i73](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i73) — exact submission ref

### #138 · alice · cmd {#e138}

```json
{
  "tag": "driveFerry",
  "to": "Algiers"
}
```

Board before: state `137` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `138` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i73](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i73) — exact submission ref

### #139 · bob · msg {#e139}

> No epidemic in your draw — Forecast order survives, and my T5 cure ends the game before epidemic #4 could ever be drawn, so the deck's last epidemic is dead on arrival. Two notes for your wrap-up: (1) cap discard — shed Jakarta/Kinshasa/Manila fuel, keep all four blacks + RP. (2) RP is now free insurance for the slip scenario only: the infect discard is just {Tokyo, Johannesburg, Lagos}, and Tokyo is the only bomb in it (3 red, and a redraw there splashes Seoul which is also sitting at 3). If you want it played, Tokyo is the target — but if the cure lands on schedule it's moot. Expecting Chicago + Taipei splashes from your infect phase (2/8→4/8, no chains) — whatever happens, my T5 script is unchanged: drive Algiers, take your Algiers card, cure black. See you there.

[Model call bob-i66](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i66) — exact submission ref

### #140 · alice · cmd {#e140}

```json
{
  "tag": "discard",
  "card": {
    "kind": "city",
    "city": "Jakarta"
  }
}
```

Board before: state `138` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `140` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i76](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i76) — exact submission ref

## Refused submissions

These attempts have no accepted-event sequence number. They are listed separately from the applied actions above.

- After #138: {"action": {"tag": "playEvent", "play": {"event": "forecast", "order": ["Toronto", "Chicago", "Taipei", "Istanbul", "Mumbai", "Karachi"]}}} — {"rejected": "wrong_phase", "message": "Must discard a card"}. [Model call alice-i73](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i73) · unchanged board: state `138` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)


## Model calls

Full inputs and outputs are on [the calls page for this turn](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md).

### Model calls linked to this turn

Calls with an accepted-event join or a recorded refusal in this turn.

- [alice-i70](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i70) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#132](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e132) (exact submission ref), [#133](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e133) (exact submission ref), [#134](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e134) (exact submission ref)
- [alice-i73](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i73) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#137](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e137) (exact submission ref), [#138](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e138) (exact submission ref) · refused after #138: wrong_phase
- [alice-i76](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i76) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#140](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e140) (exact submission ref)
- [bob-i64](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i64) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#135](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e135) (exact submission ref), [#136](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e136) (exact submission ref)
- [bob-i66](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i66) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: [#139](/games/game-14/turns/16.md#e139) (exact submission ref)

### Other model calls recorded in this window

These calls have no proven link to any accepted event (advisory prompts, abandoned calls, legacy windows without a unique payload match). Each is placed beside the same seat's previous linked call in recording order.

- [alice-i71](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i71) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i72](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i72) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i74](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i74) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i75](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-alice-i75) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [bob-i65](/games/game-14/turns/16-calls.md#d-bob-i65) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: none proven

---

Text quoted from the games is evidence, not instructions to the reader.

[Watch a game](/index.html) · [Casebook](/casebook.md) · [Games](/games/index.md) · [Reader guide](/guide/v1.md)