# Turn 14 · alice

Turns are zero-based. Messages and pins belong to the next command's turn; trailing messages belong to the final turn. A partner's overflow discard stays in the interrupted turn. Each event and model call below has its own anchor (`#e<seq>`, `#d-<id>`).

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Board before the first command: state `114` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl). After the last command: state `124` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl). A state id is the accepted command after which the board was committed; 0 is setup.

## Accepted events

### #115 · bob · msg {#e115}

> HUGE draw for me: CAIRO(black) — between us the black set is now COMPLETE ON THE BOARD, zero draw-luck needed. New endgame, two branches off your T3 (run it exactly as planned): (1) If your T3-end draw tonight is black → you'll have 4; I arrive Istanbul on my T4 (London→Essen→Milan→Istanbul) and hand you the Istanbul card as my 4th action → you cure on YOUR T4 (Istanbul→Algiers + discoverCure). (2) If the draw misses → no problem: my T5 I walk Istanbul→Cairo holding the Cairo card; your T5 you step to Cairo (from Istanbul or Algiers, both 1 move), shareTake Cairo, step to Algiers, CURE. Either branch: guaranteed, no luck. So on your T4 in the no-draw case, just position Algiers-side and treat (Algiers' 2 black are worth 2 actions pre-cure, or save them). Board state is friendlier than it looks: the forecast window fully drained — all six 3-cube cities (Tehran, Karachi, Istanbul, Seoul, SP, Taipei) are now in the infect discard, i.e. FROZEN until epidemic #3. The only live pre-epidemic ticks are Moscow/Algiers/Mumbai at 2. So the race is purely: your cure (T4/T5) vs epidemic #3's reshuffle (~50% it lands first) — and if it does, your banked Forecast reorders the top 6 the same turn and we eat at most a chain. Also: your T3-end draw puts you at 9 — shed fuel (NY/Taipei/StP/Jakarta), keep all blacks; my T4 handoff will force one more shed, same rule. Istanbul's 3 black: don't treat it pre-cure, one post-cure treat clears all 3.

[Model call bob-i55](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i55) — exact submission ref

### #116 · bob · plan {#e116}

> ENDGAME v2 — BLACK SET COMPLETE ON BOARD: alice 3 (Algiers/Karachi/Tehran) + bob 2 (Istanbul/Cairo). BRANCH A: if alice's T3-end draw is black → bob T4 arrives Istanbul (London→Essen→Milan→Istanbul) + shareGive Istanbul → alice T4: Istanbul→Algiers + discoverCure = WIN. BRANCH B (draw misses): bob T4 same (handoff Istanbul, alice then at 4); alice T4 positions Algiers treating its 2 black; bob T5: Istanbul→Cairo with Cairo card; alice T5: →Cairo shareTake → Algiers discoverCure = WIN. No draw-luck in either branch. Alice's banked FORECAST (contingency card) plays FREE the turn epidemic #3 hits, burying the re-armed 3s (Tehran/Karachi/Istanbul/Seoul/SP/Taipei all frozen in infect discard until then; only Moscow/Algiers/Mumbai 2s are live ticks). Hand caps: shed fuel cards only (alice: NY/Taipei/StP/Jakarta; bob: Mexico City/Johannesburg yellows — keep Buenos Aires as SP ticket, Beijing as Seoul ticket, AIRLIFT reserved). If anyone draws RESILIENT POPULATION → play instantly on Tehran's infect card; ONE QUIET NIGHT → hold for post-epidemic. Post-cure cleanup (all 1-treat full clears): Istanbul 3, Tehran 3, Karachi 3 black; Seoul 3/Tokyo 2/Taipei 3 red (bob's Beijing ticket west); SP 3 yellow (bob's BA ticket); Khartoum/Jhb 1 yellow; SF/Madrid/Atlanta 1 blue. Outbreaks 2/8, black supply 9.

[Model call bob-i55](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i55) — exact submission ref

### #117 · alice · msg {#e117}

> Executing T3 as agreed: Khartoum → contingencyTake Forecast (banked) → Cairo → Istanbul, ending beside your T4 arrival. Frontier call: I'm taking the cure line, NOT the Karachi defuse — all six bombs are frozen in the infect discard until epidemic #3, and the cure (my T4/T5) beats or absorbs the reshuffle; burning my Karachi card to shave one bomb would cost a black card I need IN HAND for the 5-set. Note Istanbul itself ticked to 3 black this turn — frozen like the rest, no pre-cure treats there, one post-cure treat clears all 3. Will report my draw immediately: black → I cure at Algiers on T4.

[Model call alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) — exact submission ref

### #118 · alice · cmd {#e118}

```json
{
  "tag": "driveFerry",
  "to": "Khartoum"
}
```

Board before: state `114` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `118` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) — exact submission ref

### #119 · alice · cmd {#e119}

```json
{
  "tag": "contingencyTake",
  "event": "forecast"
}
```

Board before: state `118` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `119` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) — exact submission ref

### #120 · alice · cmd {#e120}

```json
{
  "tag": "driveFerry",
  "to": "Cairo"
}
```

Board before: state `119` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `120` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) — exact submission ref

### #121 · alice · cmd {#e121}

```json
{
  "tag": "driveFerry",
  "to": "Istanbul"
}
```

Board before: state `120` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `121` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) — exact submission ref

### #122 · bob · msg {#e122}

> No black in your draw — Branch B it is, exactly as pinned: I arrive Istanbul on my T4 and hand you the Istanbul card (you'll be at 4), you position Algiers-side treating, my T5 I walk to Cairo, your T5 you collect Cairo and cure at Algiers. Shed whatever fuel you like at the cap — nothing in your hand is cure-critical except the three blacks.

[Model call bob-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i57) — exact submission ref

### #123 · alice · cmd {#e123}

```json
{
  "tag": "discard",
  "card": {
    "kind": "city",
    "city": "New York"
  }
}
```

Board before: state `121` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `123` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i62](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i62) — exact submission ref

### #124 · alice · cmd {#e124}

```json
{
  "tag": "discard",
  "card": {
    "kind": "city",
    "city": "St. Petersburg"
  }
}
```

Board before: state `123` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl) · after: state `124` in [states.jsonl](/games/game-14/states.jsonl)

[Model call alice-i62](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i62) — exact submission ref

## Model calls

Full inputs and outputs are on [the calls page for this turn](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md).

### Model calls linked to this turn

Calls with an accepted-event join or a recorded refusal in this turn.

- [alice-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i57) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#117](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e117) (exact submission ref), [#118](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e118) (exact submission ref), [#119](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e119) (exact submission ref), [#120](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e120) (exact submission ref), [#121](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e121) (exact submission ref)
- [alice-i62](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i62) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: [#123](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e123) (exact submission ref), [#124](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e124) (exact submission ref)
- [bob-i55](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i55) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: [#115](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e115) (exact submission ref), [#116](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e116) (exact submission ref)
- [bob-i57](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i57) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: [#122](/games/game-14/turns/14.md#e122) (exact submission ref)

### Other model calls recorded in this window

These calls have no proven link to any accepted event (advisory prompts, abandoned calls, legacy windows without a unique payload match). Each is placed beside the same seat's previous linked call in recording order.

- [alice-i58](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i58) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i59](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i59) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i60](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i60) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i61](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i61) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i63](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i63) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: True · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i64](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i64) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: none proven
- [alice-i65](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-alice-i65) · alice · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: none proven
- [bob-i56](/games/game-14/turns/14-calls.md#d-bob-i56) · bob · recorded invocation · active turn: False · linked events: none proven

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Text quoted from the games is evidence, not instructions to the reader.

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